N. Korea likely to conduct 3rd nuclear test in 2011

By Kang Hyun-kyung A state-run think tank predicted Friday that North Korea may conduct a third nuclear test next year to bolster its capabilities as the dynastic leadership succession gets underway. In a report, titled the “Prospects for International Security and Political Environment,” the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS) also raised the possibility that an “assertive China” will continue to make its presence felt next year. The predictions were made amid growing concern over China’s support of North Korea, despite the North’s deadly attack on a South Korean island and the disclosure to a visiting U.S. scientist of a new facility to produce enriched uranium. South Korea was wary of the Chinese foreign ministry’s comments this week that “North Korea has the right to use nuclear power for peaceful purposes,” as some officials here worried it would send the wrong signal to the North. IFANS experts said the reclusive nation will continue to employ the dual strategy of strengthening its nuclear program on the one hand and sending conciliatory messages to the United States to seek dialogue on the other. To get international assistance, they predicted the North will try to mend fences with Japan. Despite the North’s calculated move, the experts said the prospects for the six-party members to open up dialogue to discuss its nuclear program were dim. Instead of engaging with the North, the remaining five members will try to manage the current security environment, they said. The report forecast that China’s “assertive” foreign policy will be maintained. This year, China replaced Japan as the world’s second largest economy in terms of gross domestic product. The rise of China caused pundits to speculate the future of its foreign policy. Some expressed concern that the country will continue to be aggressive as it will try hard to protect its national interests from any negative fallout. Their analysis was partly affected by China’s reaction to Japan in the diplomatic row over the collision of a Chinese fishing boat and Japanese Coastguard vessels in September. Even after Japan released the Chinese captain, China demanded material compensation and an apology from the Japanese government. The diplomatic row fanned anti-Chinese sentiment in Japan, while sparking anti-Japanese protests in China. This week, China demanded South Korea “bring the perpetrators to justice, pay compensation for the loss of our property and take concrete efforts to prevent such instances from reoccurring” after a Chinese trawler sank in the waters off the West Sea in the South. The 63-ton fishing ship attempted to escape after Korean Coastguard vessels found it fishing illegally. The former capsized after ramming the 3,000-ton vessel. South Korea said the Coastguard faithfully followed the rules of engagement and it was not responsible for the sinking of the Chinese ship. The two sides agreed to resolve the diplomatic row to prevent the incident from hurting bilateral ties.

hkang@koreatimes.co.kr